North and South Korea: Inevitable Rivals?

Kim Jong Il

North and South Korea took preliminary steps to continue a dialogue between the two nations today, which would then be followed by another round of six-party talks (meetings involving both Koreas, their neighbors, and the US). While this is definitely a positive sign that N. Korea will finally apologize for the sinking of a S. Korean navy ship and the shelling of an island, most are rightly skeptical of any meaningful, lasting agreement.

The recent breakthrough is largely due to pressure from the Chinese President Hu Jintao, who is currently on an official visit here. China is probably the only nation that has leverage against N. Korea, since it the nation that the dictatorship in Pyongyang trades most with. But the Chinese also have strong interest in not making any progress, providing them a kind of buffer zone against a sea of neighbors who are all increasingly and aggressively balancing against the rising behemoth.

This makes diplomacy that much harder in the region since China is really the only country with sway over N. Korea, and is in no hurry to rid the region of really their only valuable partner. Surrounded by South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, Russia, Indonesia, Australia, and America all working to counter Chinese growing influence in the area, N. Korea provides an obvious asset.

While it is well and good President Jintao made a gesture towards the peace process, when the day is over we’ll probably just be right back where we started. Much like the recent diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, there is really only a marginal possibility of a breakthrough – the best we can do is to simply cross our fingers.

Further reading:

NY Times: South Korea Agrees to Low-Level Talks with North

Washington Post: S Korea accepts N Korean proposal for defense talks

Should the US Fear the Rise of China?

The arrival of Chinese President Hu Jintao in Washington tomorrow has the American media abuzz with one resounding theme: the threat we face from the rising behemoth, China. The New York Times reported today that there is much tension from the recent testing of China’s first stealth fighter. An opinion piece from the Los Angeles times talks of China’s modernizing military and the deployment of increasing amounts of naval vessels in the Western Pacific. A Washington Post opinion piece talks about increasing Chinese belligerence in the South China Sea.

The thinking goes that because China is an autocracy, its rise could resemble early 20^th century Japan or Germany – and America’s rise, in comparison, was peaceful. But how faithful really is that line of thinking in historical terms?

Lets quickly take a look at the rise of England and America. England’s rise was coupled with the largest colonial empire the world has ever seen – on which the sun never sets. America’s rise was coupled with the Native American genocide, the French and Indian War, the War of 1812, the Mexican-American War, the Spanish-American War, the occupation of the Phillipines, etc, etc.

As you can tell China’s rise is in fact quite different from others in history. In fact rising powers in general in the 21st century are markedly different from their 19th and 20th century counterparts. We should be grateful that China’s rise doesn’t cause a hundredth of as much violence and oppression as America or England. So far it hasn’t – and I, for one, am grateful.

Moreover, Americans should ask themselves exactly what we have to fear, what is the threat, from not being the world’s sole superpower? England used to occupy that position, and they seem to be doing fine. In fact, by many standards of measurement they are better off than we are!

At some point we will have to accept that countries rise to power and eventually fall. Over the past forty years China has made enormous strides in human rights, governance, labor rights, and more. If history is any guide, than the reforms the Chinese leaders do not enact will eventually be demanded by its people. Who really knows what China will look like in another forty years? But I do know that if they can continue at this same pace, than perhaps Americans will eventually be ready to hand over the reins.